Black Friday 2026 guide
Black Friday Laptop Deals 2026: Predictions and Price Targets
Updated October 31, 2026 · 7 min read
The short answer
If you're buying a laptop this holiday season, wait for Cyber Monday — November 30, 2026. Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast expects computer discounts to peak at around 23% off list price that day — the deepest point of the season for laptops. Black Friday itself will be strong, but unlike TVs, laptops are a Cyber Monday category.
One big caveat for 2026: memory chips got dramatically more expensive this year and manufacturers raised list prices — Apple bumped the MacBook Air from $1,099 to $1,299 in June. A “20% off” sticker in November may only bring a laptop back to what it cost a year ago. Judge every deal against price history, not the crossed-out “was” price.
When do laptop prices drop through November?
Laptop discounts build in waves — but the pattern differs from TVs:
Early October
Prime Big Deal Days (Oct 6–7) set the benchmark. Record the prices on the models you want — that’s the number to beat in November.
Early November
Discounts reach up to ~14% off list (Adobe). Target’s Early Black Friday deals (Nov 5–7) and Best Buy’s early deals (from Nov 6) run now.
Mid-November
Walmart’s Early Black Friday event (Nov 12–15); Best Buy’s main Black Friday event starts Nov 19 and runs through the 28th.
Thanksgiving week
Discounts climb to ~21% just before Thanksgiving (Nov 26).
Black Friday, Nov 27
Strong for laptops, with doorbusters appearing — but Adobe’s forecast says this is not the peak day for computers.
Cyber Monday, Nov 30
The peak. Adobe expects computer discounts to hit ~23% off list — the deepest point of the season for laptops. This is the day to buy.
December
Discounts typically settle back to 10–15%.
2027
Don’t wait for it. The memory shortage is structural — elevated PC prices are expected well into 2027.
Expected discounts by laptop type
Adobe's 23% figure is a category average — what you'll actually see depends on the machine:
| Laptop type | What to expect | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Budget Windows (15.6″) | ~$300–$500 | Doorbusters dip lower; avoid 8GB-only models above $400 |
| Mainstream ultrabook (14–16″, 16GB/512GB) | $300–$650 off list | The sweet spot; 16GB RAM + 512GB SSD is the sensible 2026 baseline |
| Gaming (RTX 5060+, 16GB RAM) | Up to ~$900 off | Last-gen GPUs get the biggest cuts |
| Chromebook Plus | ~$250–$450 | ChromeOS needs less RAM; early ads showed 30% off flagships |
| MacBook | $200–$500 off select models | Compare everything against Apple education pricing |
Price bands are typical ranges reported by deal trackers for the 2026 season — a guide, not a guarantee.
What last year looked like
In 2025, computer discounts peaked at 22.8% off list (Adobe) — the 2026 forecast of 23% is essentially flat year over year. Some concrete 2025 reference points worth keeping as benchmarks:
- MacBook Air M4 (13″, 16GB/256GB): $749 — about 25% off its $999 list. The standout Mac deal of the season.
- Dell 16 Plus (16GB/1TB): $549.99 on Cyber Monday — 52% off its then list price. That same machine lists at $1,399.99 today, which tells you everything about 2026 pricing.
- Acer Aspire Go 15: $199.99 (33% off) — the budget doorbuster to beat.
The pattern: last year's best laptop prices landed in the days around Black Friday and on Cyber Monday itself.
The 2026 memory problem
This is the year laptop deals got weird. Memory makers shifted factory capacity to the high-bandwidth memory that AI data centers buy, and consumer DDR5 prices roughly tripled — 16GB kits that cost under $100 a year ago have sold for $240+. The laptop makers passed it on:
- Apple raised most Mac list prices on June 25, 2026: MacBook Air $1,099 → $1,299, entry MacBook Neo $599 → $699.
- Dell warned in late 2025 that prices would rise at least 15–20%.
- Gartner forecast average PC prices rising 17% in 2026, with the shortage expected to last well into 2027.
What this means for you: a laptop advertised at “25% off” in November may simply be back at its early-2026 price. The crossed-out “was” price is the inflated new list price. The number that matters is the price history — what the machine (or its predecessor) actually sold for over the last 90 days.
Where the early deals are landing
Retailer calendars published so far (as of October 29, 2026):
- Target: Early Black Friday deals, November 5–7.
- Walmart: Early Black Friday, November 12–15; main Black Friday event, November 23–29; Cyber Monday deals, November 30–December 2.
- Best Buy: Early Black Friday deals from November 6; main Black Friday event, November 19–28. Already advertising up to $650 off Windows PCs, up to $900 off gaming laptops, and up to $500 off MacBooks.
- Costco: Posted Black Friday laptop prices for November 27–30.
- Amazon and Apple: Had not announced Black Friday dates as of October 29 — expect Lightning Deals once Amazon does.
Should you buy now or wait?
- If you need a laptop now: early-November deals are fine — but only if the price beats the October low you recorded during Prime Big Deal Days. Don't pay a premium for impatience.
- If you can wait: Cyber Monday, November 30, is the statistical best day for laptops. That's the differentiated advice most roundups miss — they treat Black Friday as the peak for everything.
- MacBook buyers: check Apple's education pricing first (available year-round). As of late October: MacBook Neo from $599, M5 MacBook Air from $1,199. A Black Friday “deal” that doesn't beat education pricing isn't a deal.
- What to skip: 8GB RAM Windows laptops above $400; “Black Friday-only” models with no reviews and no price history; any deal judged only against the crossed-out price.
- Don't wait for 2027: with the memory shortage structural, prices aren't coming back down soon.
How to spot a real laptop deal in 2026
- Check the price history, not the discount percentage. Use CamelCamelCamel or Keepa for the 90-day history. A 25% discount off an inflated June list price can be worse than a 10% discount off the real street price.
- Know the 2026 spec floor. For Windows: 16GB RAM and a 512GB SSD for anything over $400. Chromebooks can get away with less. Don't let a low price seduce you into an under-specced machine.
- Compare against education pricing for Macs. It's the honest baseline Apple itself publishes.
- Remember the average hides the details. Adobe's 23% is a category forecast across thousands of products. The specific model you want may bottom out on a different day — tracking that exact model beats timing the calendar.
Frequently asked questions
When is the best time to buy a laptop in 2026?
Cyber Monday, November 30. Adobe’s 2026 forecast expects computer discounts to peak at around 23% off list price that day — the deepest point of the season for laptops.
Should I wait until Cyber Monday to buy a laptop?
Generally yes — unlike TVs, laptops are a Cyber Monday category. The exception: if a laptop you want is already at or below its October low, buy it rather than gambling on Monday.
How much do laptops go on sale for Black Friday?
At the Cyber Monday peak, roughly 23% off list on average (Adobe). In street terms, expect $300–$650 off Windows laptops, up to about $900 off gaming laptops, and $200–$500 off select MacBooks.
Are MacBooks discounted on Black Friday?
Modestly, yes. Last year’s standout was the MacBook Air M4 at $749 (25% off). This year, compare every sale price against Apple’s education pricing first — a “deal” that doesn’t beat it isn’t one.
Will laptop prices drop further after the holidays?
Unlikely to help. December discounts settle to 10–15%, and the memory shortage keeping prices high is structural — elevated PC prices are expected well into 2027.
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